Analyzing the Impact of Current and Future Climate Hazards on Infrastructure Vulnerability in Somalia and Niger

Abstract

This thesis investigates the impacts of current and future climate hazards on critical infrastructure in Somalia and Niger, with a focus on healthcare and drinking water systems. Through an infrastructure risk assessment, this study quantifies how hazard intensity, frequency, and spatial extent affect infrastructure exposure and potential failure.

A multi-hazard approach is adopted, incorporating flooding, earthquakes, droughts, and cyclones, depending on the infrastructure type. Using an equal-weight overlay method, risk scores were calculated by summing hazard severity values at each infrastructure location.

Results show that under worst-case future climate scenarios, the number of high-risk facilities could increase by up to 7.5 times compared to the current situation. The number of people served by these high-risk facilities may also increase significantly, with projected increases between 48% and 13,000%.

Despite data limitations, the findings highlight the urgent need for climate-resilient infrastructure planning in both countries. The methodology developed in this research can be applied in other data-scarce contexts and may serve as a practical tool for humanitarian organizations to identify priority areas for resilience-building and future infrastructure investment.