“Exploring Valuation Discrepancies Between Listed and Non-Listed Infrastructure: Insights from M&A Transactions and Investment Returns”

Abstract

This thesis explores valuation discrepancies between listed and non-listed infrastructure assets through the analysis of M&A transactions from 2014 to 2024, focusing on developed markets. Conducted in collaboration with the listed infrastructure fund team at Van Lanschot Kempen, the study draws on data from Refinitiv and proprietary deal records. Valuation premiums are calculated as the difference between transaction multiples and trading multiples sourced from the FTSE 100 Infrastructure Index. The analysis is sector-specific and investigates key drivers of valuation gaps, including yield, deal size, leverage, and acquirer type. The findings indicate that listed targets tend to command higher premiums, particularly when acquired by private buyers. Yield and deal size exhibit a positive and statistically significant impact on the premium, while leverage proves insignificant. Subsectoral variation is also observed, reflecting heterogeneity across infrastructure segments. Moreover, the study finds that private buyers adjust their acquisition behavior in response to changing yield environments, suggesting sensitivity to monetary policy dynamics. Incorporating time-fixed effects into the regression confirms the robustness of the results, with only marginal changes in coefficient magnitudes. These findings offer meaningful insights for institutional investors evaluating relative value opportunities in listed versus non-listed infrastructure.