Mapping Technological Sovereignty: A Geopolitical Approach to Domestic Capabilities and External Dependencies in Key Technologies

Abstract

Technological sovereignty refers to a nation's ability to act autonomously in securing its prosperity and safety through access to critical technologies. This concept has gained increasing attention amid rising global trade tensions and geopolitical uncertainties. Such sovereignty can be achieved either by developing domestic technological capabilities or by maintaining a stable and reliable international network. In today’s interconnected world, reliance on other countries does not inherently undermine sovereignty—only when there is a significant risk that access may be disrupted can a lack of sovereignty be said to exist. The aim of the study is to develop a novel method for mapping a state's technological sovereignty. This builds upon research demonstrating the value of using patent citation networks to trace international knowledge flows and to examine how countries build upon each other’s innovations. While network-based approaches have been applied in related contexts, this study introduces a novel operationalization of technological sovereignty that incorporates multiple dimensions—focusing on both national capabilities and external dependencies—into a coherent analytical framework. Technological sovereignty is assessed through five key indicators: (1) the extent to which others build upon the nation’s knowledge (indegree), (2) the degree to which the nation relies on foreign knowledge (outdegree), (3) the diversification of these international knowledge dependencies (diversity), (4) the reliability of these dependencies based on institutional similarity (similarity), and (5) the balance between indegree and outdegree (edge asymmetry). The method is applied to the Netherlands and the ten key technologies from the Dutch National Technology Strategy, using patent citation network data (2004–2024) from Lens.org, analyzed in R. Findings show that the Netherlands draws more heavily on foreign knowledge than it contributes abroad. The country’s position is meaningful but relatively peripheral, with strong dependencies on countries within the OECD and NATO, particularly the United States. Based on the analysis, insights for each technology were identified and mapped into opportunities and vulnerabilities. Key policy implications include supporting core Dutch actors in semiconductors; enhancing European collaboration in quantum technologies and energy materials; leveraging EU capabilities in biomolecular and cell technologies; and, in the field of imaging technologies, fostering knowledge exchange, utilizing expertise from leading countries, and potentially reconsidering European data regulations. The methodology equips policymakers with a systematic instrument for mapping technological dependencies, pinpointing strategic vulnerabilities and opportunities, and designing sovereignty enhancing interventions. In addition, the method is intrinsically adaptable and can be readily applied to related analytical contexts.