Using Agent-based Modelling to evaluate the potential health impact of E.coli in fountain water

Abstract

This study aims to assess how Agent-Based Modelling can be used to evaluate the health impact of faecal pathogens in fountain water. This study focuses on human exposure to E.coli in fountain water. A model was developed that simulates individual exposure for three different fountain locations in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. The model simulates the movement of people that visit the fountains. Visitors either sit on the benches that surround the fountain (indirect contact with water) or play in the fountain (direct contact with water). Elements such as the distance of the spray of the fountain, the angle of the spray of the fountain and the number of people visiting the fountain are incorporated in the experiments. At last, different water management strategies are tested to determine useful approaches that can limit the chances of exposure. The project shows that it is possible to evaluate factors contributing to E.coli exposure with the use of an Agent-Based Model. The experiments prove that exposure to E.coli mainly occurs due to direct contact with water. Secondly, this research shows that the number of visitors can strongly influence the infection of the fountain and therefore also determines the number of exposed visitors. At last, according to the model we see that increasing the frequency of cleaning proves to be the most successful management strategy. This approach lowers the chance of exposure and therefore limits the number of exposed visitors.