Modelling Football Scores in the Dutch Eredivisie

Abstract

In this article I will develop a model to predict the scores of individual football matches in the Dutch Eredivisie. By using data from over 1500 recent football matches from the Dutch competition I will determine the attacking and defensive strengths of each of the teams in the competition. I will also implement the fact that the home playing team has some kind of home advantage and therefore the attacking and defensive strengths for all teams will be different when playing at home then when playing away. Finally, I will use my model to predict the outcomes of the matches of previous season to see whether my model is a good fit of reality.