A Value Sensitive Agent Based Simulation of the Refugee Crisis in the Netherlands

Abstract

The refugee crisis of 2015 was exacerbated by logistical breakdowns among the institutions responsible for asylum seeker reception. As such, asylum seekers suffered distress not only from their flight from conflict, but also from their living conditions in the host country. An agent based model was developed to characterize the wellbeing of refugees in the context of asylum logistics. The model's theoretical underpinning is Schwartz's theory of values that is implemented as a decision procedure and wellbeing operationalization. We analyze the degree to which values drive outcomes for relevant stakeholders: refugees, government, and non-government organizations. The outcome of the values analysis revealed points of the model which require further attention. We performed in silico experiments comparing simulated historical conditions to counter-factuals. Finally, the results gathered may be used for actionable policy recommendations to government stakeholders.