Agent-based modeling of crop varieties adoption by farmers

Abstract

As climate change introduces increasing uncertainties into agricultural practices, farmers will need to adapt their practices to optimally suit local conditions. The study by Brown-Fuentes (2022) provides a new variety of the common bean that is more resistant to heat. This thesis studies how such a new variety would be introduced to the environment and then how it is adopted by the farmers over time. An agent based model (ABM) is created to be able to capture emergent phenomena and spatial patterns of adoption. The decision-making process of the agents (farmers) includes more in-depth social factors than previous projects in this field; the adoption of a new variety is not solely based on its performance but also on social factors such as similarity to neighbors and a personal preference for a certain variety. Incorporating these factors into the decision-making process allows for better insights into what factors increase or decrease the rate of adoption. Model results point to crop performance being the main factor promoting adoption; social and personal factors characterized as similarity to others and a preference for the local crop already known to farmers for generations. This further implies that the introduction of the new variety to farmers should be paired with interventions that further incentivize crop performance maximization to overcome the adverse effects originating from social and personal factors that inhibit adoption.