Sustainability developments in Aviation.

Abstract

Aviation causes emissions which will grow as the industry grows. No single technological, operational or regulatory approach has a significant enough impact to reduce the emissions of aviation. Technical difficulties and long vehicle life span prevent next generation technologies significantly reducing radiative forcing by 2030 and limit the ability their ability to reduce radiative forcing by 2050. Operational policies will save emissions where it is economically sound to do so but are only capable of marginal efficiencies. Market regulation may reduce flight but mostly in those who rarely fly, creating further inequality in emissions sources. Carbon offsetting is unlikely to be performed at a scale to significantly reduce emissions and may be ineffective due to externalities. If current low carbon strategies, like SAF, are used at a much more ambitious scale aviation emissions will be reduced. This could allow fewer emissions from the aviation sector until next generation technologies take over. This could be encouraged by a more effective cap and trade system like the EU ETS. Ultimately aviation is a very high energy sector which has become a norm within some groups. A reduction in demand in these groups may be just as important as any technological, operational or policy measure to reach a world that does not exceed +1.5°C.