The Predictive Value of the SWAP-200-NL Scales in Relation to Criminal Data

Abstract

The prevalence of personality disorders (PDs) in forensic populations is high. PDs might be predictive for criminal behaviour and therefore it is interesting to study PDs in the context of risk assessment. The current study investigates whether the Dutch language version of the Shedler-Westen Assessment Procedure (SWAP-200-NL), an instrument that assesses personality pathology, has predictive value on criminal data. It is investigated to what extent the number of convictions, the number of days of detention, and the age of first conviction are explained by the SWAP-200-NL scales. To do so, 34 forensic mental health experts completed the SWAP-200-NL for defendants they were assessing. Information about the number of convictions, the number of days of detention, and the age of first conviction was acquired by studying criminal records. Various multiple regression analyses with bootstrapping were carried out to assess the predictive values of the SWAP-200-NL scales. Results suggest that the psychopathy factor scale accounts for 16% of the variability in the number of convictions and a combination of oedipal conflict factor, psychopathy factor, and schizoid orientation factor explain 43% of the variability in the age of first conviction. The scales do not account significantly for variability in the number of days of detention. In conclusion, the SWAP-200-NL may be used to make chary predictions about the age of first conviction. Future research should extend and define the model of the age of first conviction in the context of risk assessment.