Mapping Plasmodium falciparum between 2000 and 2013 in Uganda on a 30 meter spatial resolution scale using environmental and spatial dependencies of malaria transmission

Abstract

Many mapping efforts have been made to decrease the malaria burden on the world’s population. High resolution spatial knowledge of malaria could increase the effectivity of malaria control and prevention which is especially useful for resource limited countries. In this study, 30 meter resolution malaria transmission suitability maps and exposure changes from 2001 to 2013 in Uganda are computed by using 6 predictor variables representing water proximity, water depth, water extent, temporal water, population density and air temperature. The latter four predictor variables show the strongest relations with malaria incidence rates. Furthermore, decreases in exposure to malaria over time have been noted. The decrease is associated with the urbanization in Uganda. While many agree that an increase in population causes a decrease in malaria transmission intensity, questions about the roles of wealth, institutions and population density remain and have to be addressed in future research.